The outlook for the first half of this year is likely to mirror 2020 in a couple of respects. The likes of the arts, hospitality, travel and non-essential bricks and mortar retail, those industries that have struggled throughout the crisis, will continue to fight for survival.

At the same time, technology giants, ecommerce and supermarkets are set to yield yet more growth.

It may seem like there is little in common between these two scenarios, which are very much at opposite ends of the scale, but even those flying high will be all too aware that any change to situation, whether it increase or reduce demand, requires the right planning and agility.

Online retailers that struggle to fulfil orders for example, whether due to over demand or supply chains being hamstrung by trade disruption, will see their customers evaporate if not able to provide a solution with speed.

That’s why, now more than ever, businesses need to be agile and respond quickly to changing situations, understand when to stay the course and where to adapt, and be able to accelerate as the situation improves.

This means, whether they are fighting for survival or attracting more customers than ever before, companies must prioritise creating a business recovery plan, one that can mark the way through the crisis.

But at a time when any hope of making accurate predictions based on historical data has gone out the window, how can any organisation hope to effectively plot their way through what comes next?

Why it’s time to start thinking about scenarios

The key is to be able to design and model all the conceivable scenarios a business could face, and then use them to inform a dynamic plan that can adapt as the situation changes.

This scenario planning approach requires the ability to rapidly simulate and assess the impact of various events across a wide range of business measures (whether operational or financial).

Fundamentally, it is built on a business’ ability to access data rapidly. Internal, external, from customers, third parties, suppliers, industry analysts, the media, social networks – all intelligence that needs to be captured, distilled and analysed quickly.

All of which can provide the information businesses need to inform scenarios and build plans.

Having that access, that ability, is critical to making accurate decisions – the sort of decisions that can mean the difference between recovery, or the ability to take advantage of unexpected business growth, and failure.

Building for what comes next

As data is fed into scenario modelling, so plans can start to be developed that can identify new opportunities.

As this progresses, and the scenarios become out of date, new data can be used to update them, with new outcomes established – where once recovery was the goal, it may be time to look at reinvention, and see how a business cannot just survive or simply ride a new wave of customers, but thrive and build on opportunity when it arises.

This involves looking at what the new reality the business is operating in looks like, what needs to change to fit in with this context, and how the company can be best positioned.

For a company fighting to keeps it head above water, that might mean consolidating its focus on its core operations, and anything that is not directly relevant to those efforts gets put on hold.

An organisation enjoying a bumper year, on the other hand, might look at how it can get more out of the parts of its business operating at full throttle – Amazon famously went on a hiring spree at the beginning of the pandemic as it strove to keep up with demand.

This is not guesswork – it is focused, data-backed decision-making and it can only be achieved if the scenarios being used to define the plan are agile and dynamic.

Not a once and done exercise, this planning must be something that constantly evolves with changing situations, which is why the data that informs them needs to be timely and relevant.

From scenarios to new realities

The need for scenario planning and the aggregation of all available data (internal and external) has never been more important than now.

It doesn’t matter how well or how badly a business is doing – every company needs to be well positioned for what comes next, even though the road may not be clear or predictable. This is the new reality.

Harness it effectively with scenario planning that informs achievable business recovery, and companies will be well placed to get through the current crisis in the strongest possible position and adapt to whatever is on the horizon.

Ian Stone is CEO of Vuealta.