Geopolitical uncertainty and policy changes have become the dominant causes of profit warnings among UK-listed companies sponsoring defined benefit pension schemes, according to analysis from EY-Parthenon.

Almost two-thirds, or 63 per cent, of the 27 profit warnings issued by companies with DB schemes during the first half of 2026 cited these factors, the highest proportion recorded for any six-month period in more than 25 years of EY's analysis.

Rising costs were another significant factor, cited in 34 per cent of warnings. That was the highest proportion since the second half of 2022, when almost two-thirds of warnings referred to cost pressures.

The findings highlight the impact that geopolitical disruption, including conflict in the Middle East and associated volatility in energy markets, is having on UK companies already contending with weaker consumer confidence and higher input costs.

However, the overall number of warnings from businesses sponsoring DB schemes declined. The 27 recorded during the first half represented a 21 per cent fall from the 34 issued during the same period of 2025.

Across the UK stock market, companies issued 114 profit warnings during the first six months of the year. Almost a quarter came from businesses sponsoring DB pension schemes.

Consumer-facing companies were particularly exposed. Businesses in the FTSE Household Goods and Home Construction sector, which includes housebuilders, issued seven of the warnings from DB sponsors, representing about a quarter of the total. Half of all warnings from DB sponsors came from companies in the broader Consumer Discretionary category.

The findings are significant for pension trustees because deteriorating corporate performance can affect the financial strength of the employers supporting DB schemes.

Karina Brookes, UK pensions covenant advisory leader at EY-Parthenon, said the Middle East conflict was contributing to "higher energy and input costs and weaker consumer confidence".

"In these times of continued turbulence, it is crucial for trustees to remain closely engaged with the sponsor to understand the range of scenarios that might have a meaningful impact on sponsor support," she said.

Paul Kitson, UK pensions consulting leader at EY, said stronger funding levels across many DB schemes should nevertheless provide some reassurance, while giving trustees and employers greater flexibility to consider their longer-term objectives.