New analysis suggests a forthcoming overhaul of business rates will disproportionately affect bricks-and-mortar retailers, with supermarkets and department stores among those facing sharp tax hikes.

Global tax services firm Ryan said measures due in April 2026 could cost retail, leisure and hospitality firms an additional £482m a year on their physical premises.

The Treasury will introduce a new surcharge of up to 10p in the pound for properties with a rateable value of £500,000 or more, arguing the revenue will help reduce rates for smaller shops, restaurants and leisure businesses.

However, experts warn the policy risks penalising the very businesses that draw people to high streets and shopping centres. Ryan’s research shows:

• Almost 1,803 large supermarkets could face rate increases.

• 650 hospitality firms could see their bills rise by £75m.

• 429 leisure venues face a combined increase of £48.5m.

• Just 129 online retailers are expected to be affected.

The analysis also found that warehouses and distribution sites would face a smaller overall increase of £262m, despite the surcharge being framed as a way to address the tax imbalance between online and physical retail.

Alex Probyn, property tax practice leader at Ryan, said: “The bluntness of this policy is stark. Only 129 properties are pure online retailers, yet thousands of supermarkets, department stores and out-of-town chains — plus the HQs and distribution centres that support them — will be dragged into this new tax.”

The findings will fuel debate over the government’s approach to supporting high streets, which have struggled with rising costs, shifting shopping habits and reduced footfall since the pandemic.