Global technology companies are wobbling - is another bubble about to pop?
It’s no secret that the growth of the global economy has been intertwined with the ascendance of a handful of technology companies over the past decade. Many, like Facebook and Amazon are worth billions of dollars now. Their rise sparked a gold-rush of public and private equity investment in the technology sector.
Cut to the present; 2019 has been a tough year for high profile tech startups to go public, with many seeing their initial valuations drop precipitously. Companies like WeWork, Uber and Peloton that have famously disrupted traditional business models are finding the road to profitability a surprisingly rocky one. This phenomenon has led to comparisons to the tech bubble burst of 2000.
My take? Yes, the public is now more cautious about high-flying startups, having been burned by the 2000 bubble. But that doesn’t matter because most stocks in these high flyers are owned by institutional investors, not individuals. For example, about 75% of Facebook’s public float is owned by institutions.
Venture capitalists and private equity investors bid up the prices of these well-known names prior to an IPO in the hopes that they can bail out at an even higher price.
In the lobbies of many of Silicon Valley’s most prominent venture capital firms, you’ll see a wall of plaques commemorating their investments in Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Tesla, Uber, Peloton, We, and many other now-famous household names.
What they don’t tell you is how much they paid to have those trophies on the wall. And once you pay a crazy high price for a private stock, it’s inconceivable that you would let the company go public at a lower price. Hence, companies go public at prices that are unsustainable.
So here’s the $64,000 question: is the bubble about to burst again? My answer is “no” because these high-profile companies have nothing to do with the many B2B companies that have gone public and are doing just fine, thank you.
As Derek Thompson from The Atlantic pointed out in a recent article on the subject: “You might not have heard about these “real tech” companies—like Zscaler, Anaplan, and Smartsheet—because they mostly sell business-to-business software or cloud services. But all of them are trading more than 100 percent above their listed IPO price.”
B2B businesses lack the buzz and sex appeal of household name unicorns. It’s more impressive (or more precisely, it used to be more impressive) to say that you’re an investor in WeWorks or Peloton than the many successful B2B companies that most people have never heard of.
Since there’s less hype around these stocks, their price is usually more rational and grounded in realistic expectations.
So as rumours of a new dot-com bubble swirl, it’s important to remember that pure tech companies in sometimes boring-sounding businesses are still a winning proposition. For example, my company, Wasabi, sells cloud storage.
Boring, perhaps, but storing all the world’s data is arguably a bigger and more sensible business opportunity than buying up a lot of real estate, sprucing it up, and renting it out to over-caffeinated millennials.
To quote Thompson again: “enterprise-software companies are building profitable businesses by selling shovels at the gold rush.” So come get your shovel and get digging.
David Friend is CEO of Wasabi.
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