Launching the findings today, BRC chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield, who is also chairman of John Lewis Partnership, said shops were facing major changes which would lead to job losses. But he added that remaining jobs would be more productive and higher earning.

“What matters is who and where will be affected most by all this change. These are the valleys to cross and the path through them needs to be chartered with care,” he said.

“The report reaches some positive conclusions. Customers will get better choice, better value, more convenience and more personalisation.

“Retailing will be more productive, powered by better jobs that offer the chance to develop a wide array of skills and greater earnings. Not because of the National Living Wage, but because differentiation between competing retailers will depend on it”

The pace of change within the sector is being forced by a series of factors including the shift to ecommerce platforms from bricks-and-mortar shops and the higher cost of labour under the National Living Wage.

The BRC warned this would exacerbate the rate of shop closures and hit employment in “fragile communities” where high streets and shopping centres are already experiencing low demand.

It added that smaller businesses would be disproportionately impacted by the high street’s evolution, because they have less capacity to deal with rising costs.

Chairman of Ryman Stationery and Robert Dyas, Theo Paphitis, said government policy would have to change to soften the blow on retailers.

“What this report shows is that without a major re-think by the government around the business rates system and the apprenticeship levy, together with careful consideration of the National Living Wage, the trading conditions for retail are set to worsen significantly.

He added: “The most vulnerable people and places will be impacted and we are keen to play our part in implementing these policies, but the Government will need to work hard to mitigate their impact.”

Tesco chief executive Dave Lewis added that collaboration between stakeholders was necessary to prevent the worst effects.

“Getting this response right will have a positive impact on the retail industry, but also on the wider economy, social mobility, geographical balance, training and employment more broadly,” he said.