UK unemployment is expected to surpass two million for the first time in more than a decade, signalling a cooling labour market as businesses rein in hiring amid mounting cost pressures.

But the headline figure risks obscuring a deeper structural issue, according to Strive Training, which argues that a growing mismatch between available roles and workforce skills is reshaping the employment landscape.

Jonny Phillips, managing director at the company, said rising unemployment should not be viewed solely as a cyclical downturn. “We’re not just seeing fewer jobs,” he said. “We’re seeing a widening gap between the roles that exist and the people trying to access them.”

The warning comes as employers face higher wage bills and energy costs, prompting some to slow recruitment or reduce headcount. Yet vacancies persist across several sectors, suggesting that demand for labour has not disappeared but is increasingly concentrated in areas requiring different skills or experience.

Phillips cautioned that interpreting the trend purely through an economic lens risks missing the underlying shift. “People aren’t just out of work,” he said. “They’re often stuck between roles they’ve left and roles they’re not yet equipped to move into.”

This dynamic raises the prospect that rising unemployment could become more entrenched if transitions between jobs remain slow. The speed at which workers can retrain and move into available positions is likely to be a decisive factor in determining whether the increase proves temporary or structural.

The issue also carries broader implications. A persistent gap between jobseekers and employers could weigh on productivity, constrain business growth and limit social mobility, particularly if certain groups struggle to access emerging opportunities.

As the economic outlook becomes more uncertain, the findings suggest policymakers and businesses may need to place greater emphasis on skills development and workforce adaptability.