Published in late February, new research in The Lancet Public Health journal reveals a troubling trend: life expectancy gains across Europe are stagnating. According to the study, average annual increases dropped from 0.23 years during the 1990-2011 period to just 0.15 years between 2011 and 2019, with England seeing the sharpest decline, followed by the other UK nations, with only Norway bucking the trend.

Experts point to a toxic combination of poor diet, physical inactivity and rising obesity – underlying drivers of cardiovascular disease and cancer – as the key culprits. Yet, encouragingly, life expectancy among older Europeans continues to rise, underscoring that a natural longevity ceiling has not been reached, leaving considerable space for tackling early, avoidable deaths among younger age groups.

Consequently, the path forward must be paved by preventative, holistic public health policies that avoid quick fixes and resist the pull of sensationalised debates that increase the risk of misguided decision-making. Only through scientifically-grounded action can Europe turn the tide and help its citizens live healthier, longer lives.

Reflecting on The Lancet study’s findings, NHS England Director of Public Health, Sarah Price, has rightly emphasised how “the slowdown in life expectancy improvements, particularly due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, highlights the urgent need for stronger action on the root causes.”

Indeed, CVD and cancer are the leading causes of Europe’s stalling life expectancy, with the former responsible for 1.71 million fatalities in 2021 – representing nearly one-third of all deaths – and cancer claiming 1.14 million lives. Certain countries, notably the Scandinavians, as well as Iceland and Belgium, have managed to maintain improvements in life expectancy since 2011 by prioritising public health policies that reduce exposure to major risk factors like tobacco use, alcohol consumption and poor diets. These nations demonstrate that sustained, preventative action can curb the toll of chronic diseases and improve population health.

Yet, as governments rightly focus on addressing tobacco’s and alcohol’s well-documented health impacts, ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become increasingly vilified. Critics argue that UPFs contribute to rising obesity and chronic disease rates; however, unlike tobacco and alcohol, UPFs remain poorly-defined, with studies revealing nutritional experts’ inconsistent classifications of food products using the NOVA system. These findings undermine the term’s legitimacy and underscore the risk that a singular focus on UPFs through sensationalism will divert attention from effective nutritional health interventions.

In a 2024 report, the EU-funded food innovation ecosystem, EIT Food, notably warned of the “widespread confusion” created by the lack of a standardised, reliable UPF designation. The EIT study revealed that only “31% of the 10,000 Europeans surveyed believe UPFs can be healthy,” while roughly three-fourths overestimate staple foods’ degree of processing and half report steering clear of plant-based meat alternatives due to their UPF designation.

These findings showcase the fundamental problem with placing all processed foods under the same umbrella of ‘unhealthiness,’ as plant-based products are not only increasingly recognised in studies for their health benefits but clearly backed by the EU to help build a more sustainable food system. According to a recent report from UK-based charity The Churchill Fellowship, the UPF “hysteria” surrounding plant-based vegan meat products risks deterring consumers from nutritious options and undermining climate goals.

The report emphasises that while UPF labels were meant to flag heavily processed products, many consumers and policymakers now erroneously conflate factory-made with harmful, ignoring the significant diversity within this category. As its author and food systems expert Jenny Chapman notes, “the UPF categorisation simply tells us that plant-based meats, like many other foods we eat,” including nutritious UPFs like tofu, hummus, oat milk and wholemeal bread, “are made in factories,” – it does not entail an absolute determination of a food’s healthiness.

As these products prove, certain UPFs have an important place in balanced, healthy diets, making it critical to replace broad-brush stigmatisation with nuance and evidence-based discussion as efforts to tackle obesity and its lethal associated diseases accelerate.

Examining Europe’s obesity landscape alongside the United States offers valuable insights into the drivers of life-shortening health issues and the comprehensive policies needed to reverse them. According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Population Review, America continues to grapple with far higher obesity rates. While many U.S. states report rates exceeding 30 percent – and in some cases 40 percent – most European countries remain below 25%, with nations like France dipping under 11% and several Nordic and Southern European countries under 20%.

This disparity stems from a range of factors. European countries, particularly in the Mediterranean region, emphasise fresh produce, whole grains and healthy fats, often consumed during home-cooked meals and social gatherings, while smaller portion sizes and a food culture centered around quality rather than convenience further contribute to healthier habits. Furthermore, urban planning is a major determinant, with Europe’s walkable cities and efficient public transport systems naturally promoting physical activity, in sharp contrast to the U.S.’s car-focused built environment.

In February, a Harvard-backed study confirmed the central importance of environmental factors in explaining early death risks, concluding that they are roughly ten times more significant than genetics. This finding highlights the importance of health-centred urban planning that promotes inclusive access to physical activity spaces and infrastructure – as opposed to interventions exclusively targeting individual choices – to curb obesity and foster longer, healthier lives.

Amid the continent’s NCD crisis, the Lancet study offers a vital wake-up call for Europe: reversing the slowdown in life expectancy requires urgent, preventative action. Countries should draw lessons from the Nordic regions’ successful approach in recent years, as well as the UK’s renewed focus on root-cause health solutions, rather than relying on treatment after the fact. Lasting progress demands holistic policies that promote healthier lives from the ground up, not convenient scapegoats like UPFs.